Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid discusses his firm’s expectation for market volatility this summer and Mauricio Umansky, CEO of The Agency, analyzes the U.S. real estate market. Plus, Barron’s Al Root and Carleton English preview upcoming earnings.
While headlines and markets may have quieted, policy direction has not improved materially. Based on the updated tariff rates that Trump announced recently, the rates threatened are either unchanged or worse than their original April outlines.
Ongoing trade talks with India might cut tariffs below 20%—from 26% announced in April, and some smaller economies like Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam also appear set for some relief from the exorbitant rates originally threatened. But the EU, Canada and Brazil—with combined economies larger than the US—are now facing rates between 30% and 50%, compared to 10% to 25% previously.3 The EU is preparing an updated list of goods for counter-tariffs.
On top of that, with the newfound US enthusiasm for support of Ukraine, Trump has also threatened to leverage a bipartisan Senate bill sponsored by Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal to impose secondary sanctions, including tariffs, on countries that continue to do business with Russia. This could affect both China and India, among others.
